Haitian
Scientific Society Seminar
Series
Saturday September 30, 2023
12:45-2:30
Zoom-Link: https://umassboston.zoom.us/j/94777986513
Mathematical Modeling of Emerging Infectious Diseases and
Effectiveness of Interventions
Christian Geneus
Procter & Gamble
Abstract: Transmission-based mathematical models help to guide mitigation
efforts addressing important questions such as “When will the incidence
reach its peak” or “What impact will testing have on the reducing transmission”.
To best help quantify the impact of both pharmaceutical (i.e., vaccination) and
non-pharmaceutical interventions (including frequent testing, surgical and N95
facemasks) for COVID-19, a Stochastic Generalized Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered
(SEIR)-Epidemic Model was developed. Results of the simulation showed the
following: 1) the rate of infection for non-facemask wearers were almost twice
as high compared to the facemask wearers, 2) the quality of the facemasks has a
distinct impact on the rate of transmission, and 3) the combination of several
non-pharmaceutical interventions can greatly reduce the transmission of
COVID-19. Lastly, results show that as the rate of vaccination coverage
increases, the effective reproductive number decreases in turn reduces the rate
of transmission of COVID-19.
Bio: Dr. Geneus
received his PhD in Biostatistics from Tulane University in 2020. He obtained three
Master’s degrees between 2011 and 2018 in various scientific fields. He
completed his undergraduate studies in Physics at UmassAmherst
in 2011. Since 2020, he has been a Research
Scientist/Statistician at Procter & Gamble in Cincinnati, Ohio, and a
Partner at Mergen Research in New Orleans, Louisiana.